Can Google Trends predict the outcome of the NYC Democratic Primary?
Based on keyword searches for Christine Quinn, Bill De Blasio and Bill Thompson, Google Trends predicts that Bill De Blasio will receive a large percent of the democratic votes on Tuesday, September 10 with Christine Quinn edging out Bill Thompson for a close second place finish.
If no candidate obtains 40% of the vote, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on October 1. Google Trends indicates a clear win for Bill De Blasio, but so many candidates in field it’s unlikely he will hit the 40% vote mark which will send him into a runoff with either Christine Quinn or Bill Thompson.
Based on the past 90 days – see chart below – it’s clear that Bill De Blasio surged ahead on August 8 when his campaign released the YouTube video his son Dante which received over 150,000 views and then surged further ahead on August 13 after polls declared De Blasio the frontrunner.